Theory of Historical Cycles (Strauss–Howe)

The theory of historical cycles by William Strauss and Neil Howe was presented in the books Generations (1991) and The Fourth Turning (1997). The authors analyzed Anglo-American history from the fifteenth century onward and discovered, by their account, a stable rhythm: every 80 to 90 years (four generations of roughly 20 to 22 years each) history completes a full cycle — a 'saeculum' — passing through four characteristic eras, or 'turnings.'

The four turnings: the High (after a crisis — institutional building, collective optimism), the Awakening (cultural revolution, individualism against the collective), the Unraveling (individualism ascends, institutions weaken, social consensus fragments), and the Crisis (mortal threat, mobilization, birth of a new order). Each turning raises a generation with a characteristic archetype: Prophets, Nomads, Heroes, and Artists.

A generation's archetype is determined not by year of birth as such but by which phase of the cycle shaped its childhood, youth, and maturity. Baby Boomers in Strauss-Howe theory are 'Prophets': they grew up during the postwar High, and their youth coincided with the Awakening of the 1960s. Millennials are 'Heroes,' analogous to the World War II generation, who came of age during the Unraveling and confronted the Crisis.

In Errarium, the Strauss-Howe system occupies a unique position: it is the only method with a macro-historical scale (T4) in the platform's classification. It works not with individual psychology but with the collective destinies of generations. Its limitation is historical Eurocentrism and the debatable universality of the identified patterns beyond the Anglo-American context.